The Father of the Nation

Thirty eight percent of Russians believe that nobody but Putin can manage leadership of their country. A quarter of all Russians don't see anybody at all who can manage Russia. (Ненадежные люди) This is the result of persistent extermination of democracy in Russia throughout the Putin-era.

I have finally got my hands on "A Russian Diary" by Anna Politkovskaya - the book I've been itching to read. It wasn't exactly a holiday reading, but I could not put the book down while I was uselessly spending time in Phuket. I think this is one of the most disturbing books I have ever read. Now, I feel sorry and disappointed for the Russians.

Another result of my holiday readings is a curiosity about upcoming Russian elections. Estonia, Poland, Lithuania, USA and UK have already fallen victims of pre-election circus. Putin is exploiting the idea of Russia being besieged by the enemy, the same way he exploited Checnya in 1999/2000 and ultra-nationalist sentiments in 2003/2004. All these emotions are peas from the same pod - Russian nationalism and xenophobia - so eloquently put into "Russia for the Russians!" slogan.

(Office goodies. Source: Wikipedia)

So what will happen later this year and in March 2008? An article (Ненадежные люди) in a Russian paper half-ironically suggested the following scenario. [Following is my abridged translation of an excerpt from the article.]

"Long before March 2, 2008 - the "black day" in the calendar, when Russia will be forced to elect a new head of state during the next presidential elections - its citizens should start to cry: "How are you leaving us, the father?" («На кого ты нас, батюшка, покидаешь?») If the cries are loud and intensive enough, and if in addition to selfish bureaucrats and bootlicking politicians, simple people will join the cries - the whole apartment blocks, schools, factories and other working and non-working collectives, maybe even the international community, which has surprisingly started bullying Vladimir Putin lately, will understand that "the will of the people is the God's will". Like Kazakhs cannot live without Nazarbayev, like Tajiks will be lost like little children without Emomali Rahmon, like Azerbaijanis cannot deal with their difficulties without Aliyev family - the same way Russians will be orphans without Putin."

My guess is that nothing remarkable will happen in Russia during the following elections. Opinion polls indicate that hardly any changes will take place in the current composition of the Russian parliament Duma. Overwhelming majority will vote either for the Putin's party, or strongly por-Putin fictious parties. Pathetically, the clowns in the Communist party and Liberal Democrats (a very confusing name for those populist sensationalists) will be the only opposition.

My speculation is, however, that Putin will surprise the whole world by some unexpected twist in the presidential elections, which will catch everyone off-guard and guarantee his return to rein in 2012. He might even stay, defying all reason - who knows.